{"cells": [{"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["# Evoluation d'une population - \u00e9nonc\u00e9\n", "\n", "On souhaite ici faire \u00e9voluer une population \u00e0 partir de table de mortalit\u00e9 et d'une situation initiale. Dans ce type d'exercice, on fait souvent un grand nombre de recherche internet pour trouver la fonction qui permet d'aller vite. Avec la pratique, on retient le nom de ces m\u00e9thodes. La correction propose une solution mais il n'existe pas une fa\u00e7on unique de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 ces questions."]}, {"cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [{"data": {"text/html": ["<div id=\"my_id_menu_nb\">run previous cell, wait for 2 seconds</div>\n", "<script>\n", "function repeat_indent_string(n){\n", "    var a = \"\" ;\n", "    for ( ; n > 0 ; --n) {\n", "        a += \"    \";\n", "    }\n", "    return a;\n", "}\n", "var update_menu_string = function(begin, lfirst, llast, sformat, send, keep_item) {\n", "    var anchors = document.getElementsByClassName(\"section\");\n", "    if (anchors.length == 0) {\n", "        anchors = document.getElementsByClassName(\"text_cell_render rendered_html\");\n", "    }\n", "    var i,t;\n", "    var text_menu = begin;\n", "    var text_memo = \"<pre>\\nlength:\" + anchors.length + \"\\n\";\n", "    var ind = \"\";\n", "    var memo_level = 1;\n", "    var href;\n", "    var tags = [];\n", "    var main_item = 0;\n", "    for (i = 0; i <= llast; i++) {\n", "        tags.push(\"h\" + i);\n", "    }\n", "\n", "    for (i = 0; i < anchors.length; i++) {\n", "        text_memo += \"**\" + anchors[i].id + \"--\\n\";\n", "\n", "        var child = null;\n", "        for(t = 0; t < tags.length; t++) {\n", "            var r = anchors[i].getElementsByTagName(tags[t]);\n", "            if (r.length > 0) {\n", "child = r[0];\n", "break;\n", "            }\n", "        }\n", "        if (child == null){\n", "            text_memo += \"null\\n\";\n", "            continue;\n", "        }\n", "        if (anchors[i].hasAttribute(\"id\")) {\n", "            // when converted in RST\n", "            href = anchors[i].id;\n", "            text_memo += \"#1-\" + href;\n", "            // passer \u00e0 child suivant (le chercher)\n", "        }\n", "        else if (child.hasAttribute(\"id\")) {\n", "            // in a notebook\n", "            href = child.id;\n", "            text_memo += \"#2-\" + href;\n", "        }\n", "        else {\n", "            text_memo += \"#3-\" + \"*\" + \"\\n\";\n", "            continue;\n", "        }\n", "        var title = child.textContent;\n", "        var level = parseInt(child.tagName.substring(1,2));\n", "\n", "        text_memo += \"--\" + level + \"?\" + lfirst + \"--\" + title + \"\\n\";\n", "\n", "        if ((level < lfirst) || (level > llast)) {\n", "            continue ;\n", "        }\n", "        if (title.endsWith('\u00b6')) {\n", "            title = title.substring(0,title.length-1).replace(\"<\", \"&lt;\").replace(\">\", \"&gt;\").replace(\"&\", \"&amp;\")\n", "        }\n", "\n", "        if (title.length == 0) {\n", "            continue;\n", "        }\n", "\n", "        while (level < memo_level) {\n", "            text_menu += \"</ul>\\n\";\n", "            memo_level -= 1;\n", "        }\n", "        if (level == lfirst) {\n", "            main_item += 1;\n", "        }\n", "        if (keep_item != -1 && main_item != keep_item + 1) {\n", "            // alert(main_item + \" - \" + level + \" - \" + keep_item);\n", "            continue;\n", "        }\n", "        while (level > memo_level) {\n", "            text_menu += \"<ul>\\n\";\n", "            memo_level += 1;\n", "        }\n", "        text_menu += repeat_indent_string(level-2) + sformat.replace(\"__HREF__\", href).replace(\"__TITLE__\", title);\n", "    }\n", "    while (1 < memo_level) {\n", "        text_menu += \"</ul>\\n\";\n", "        memo_level -= 1;\n", "    }\n", "    text_menu += send;\n", "    //text_menu += \"\\n\" + text_memo;\n", "    return text_menu;\n", "};\n", "var update_menu = function() {\n", "    var sbegin = \"\";\n", "    var sformat = '<li><a href=\"#__HREF__\">__TITLE__</a></li>';\n", "    var send = \"\";\n", "    var keep_item = -1;\n", "    var text_menu = update_menu_string(sbegin, 2, 4, sformat, send, keep_item);\n", "    var menu = document.getElementById(\"my_id_menu_nb\");\n", "    menu.innerHTML=text_menu;\n", "};\n", "window.setTimeout(update_menu,2000);\n", "            </script>"], "text/plain": ["<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"]}, "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result"}], "source": ["from jyquickhelper import add_notebook_menu\n", "add_notebook_menu()"]}, {"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["### Introduction"]}, {"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["A partir de donn\u00e9es r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9es sur Internet, on cherche \u00e0 simuler l'\u00e9volution de la population fran\u00e7aise dans le futur. Par la suite, on pourra comparer diff\u00e9rents sc\u00e9narios en terme de natalit\u00e9. Les donn\u00e9es dont on dispose sont :\n", "\n", "* [La pyramide des \u00e2ges pour la France en 2017](https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2381472)\n", "* [Les tables de mortalit\u00e9s](https://www.ined.fr/fr/tout-savoir-population/chiffres/france/mortalite-cause-deces/table-mortalite/)\n", "* [Le taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 par \u00e2ge](https://www.bdm.insee.fr/bdm2/affichageSeries?idbank=000436392&page=graphique&request_locale=fr)\n", "\n", "Il existe d'autres sources comme [Eurostat](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database). Les donn\u00e9es sont mises \u00e0 jour r\u00e9ugli\u00e8rement et les liens peuvent casser.\n", "Les exercices qui suivent requi\u00e8rent les modules [pandas](http://pandas.pydata.org/), [numpy](http://www.numpy.org/), [matplotlib](http://matplotlib.org/). Voici quelques notebooks pour vous exercer :\n", "\n", "* [DataFrame et Graphes](http://www.xavierdupre.fr/app/ensae_teaching_cs/helpsphinx/notebooks/td2a_cenonce_session_1.html) - [correction](http://www.xavierdupre.fr/app/ensae_teaching_cs/helpsphinx/notebooks/td2a_correction_session_1.html)\n", "* [Calcul Matriciel, Optimisation](http://www.xavierdupre.fr/app/ensae_teaching_cs/helpsphinx/td_2a.html) - [correction](http://www.xavierdupre.fr/app/ensae_teaching_cs/helpsphinx/notebooks/td2a_correction_session_2A.html)"]}, {"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["### Exercice 1 : pyramides des \u00e2ges\n", "\n", "L'INED propose la [Pyramide des \u00e2ges](https://www.ined.fr/fr/tout-savoir-population/chiffres/france/structure-population/pyramide-ages/) de la population fran\u00e7aise. Il faut reproduire ce graphique \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es mentionn\u00e9es plus haut. Voici quelques liens qui pourraient vous y aider :\n", "\n", "* R\u00e9cup\u00e9rer les donn\u00e9es et les placer dans un [DataFrame](http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/generated/pandas.DataFrame.html?highlight=dataframe) avec la fonction [read_csv](http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/generated/pandas.read_csv.html?highlight=read#pandas.read_csv) ou [read_excel](http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/generated/pandas.read_excel.html?highlight=read_excel#pandas.read_excel)\n", "* Tracer un graphique avec la fonction [plot](http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/generated/pandas.DataFrame.plot.html?highlight=plot#pandas.DataFrame.plot)\n", "\n", "Comme la pyramide des \u00e2ges est un graphique sp\u00e9cifique mais assez courant, il est tr\u00e8s probable qu'on trouve des bouts de codes sur Internet qui le proposent comme [Pyramide des ages](http://www.di.ens.fr/~vergnaud/teaching1415/TPc_20150304_Python.html)."]}, {"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["### Exercice 2 : calcul de l'esp\u00e9rance de vie\n", "\n", "Il faut calculer l'esp\u00e9rance vie \u00e0 chaque \u00e2ge \u00e0 partir de la table de mortalit\u00e9."]}, {"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["### Exercice 3 : simulation de la pyramide l'ann\u00e9e suivante\n", "\n", "On suppose qu'il n'y a pas de naissance, on calcule la population en janvier de cette ann\u00e9e en appliquant les taux de mortalit\u00e9 de la table r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9e. On repr\u00e9sente les deux pyramides sur le m\u00eame graphique."]}, {"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["### Exercice 4 : simulation jusqu'en 2100\n", "\n", "On suppose toujours qu'il n'y a pas de naissance. On continue la simulation jusqu'en 2100. On trace le m\u00eame graphique avec cette nouvelle ann\u00e9e."]}, {"cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": ["### Exercice 5 : simulation avec les naissances\n", "\n", "On reprend la m\u00eame simulation mais on tient compte des naissances."]}, {"cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {"collapsed": true}, "outputs": [], "source": []}], "metadata": {"kernelspec": {"display_name": "Python 3", "language": "python", "name": "python3"}, "language_info": {"codemirror_mode": {"name": "ipython", "version": 3}, "file_extension": ".py", "mimetype": "text/x-python", "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", "version": "3.6.1"}}, "nbformat": 4, "nbformat_minor": 2}